The Royal LePage Home Price Update and Market Forecast, distributed each quarter, includes price data and insights from experts in 63 real estate markets across the country, as well as national and regional forecasts.
Despite a continued slowdown in market activity in the later months of 2023, Royal LePage expects sidelined buyers to re-engage in the first quarter of 2024 ahead of expected rate cuts by the Bank of Canada.
“I believe the narrative suggesting that the housing market will rebound only when the Bank of Canada lowers rates misses the mark,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “The recovery will begin when consumers have confidence the home they buy today will not be worth less tomorrow. We see that tipping point occurring in the first quarter, before the highly anticipated easing of the Bank of Canada’s key lending rate.”
Key highlights from the 2024 Market Survey Forecast:
- National aggregate home price increased 4.3% year over year in Q4 2023; decreased 1.7% quarter over quarter
- Aggregate home price in greater regions of Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver posted gains of 5.1%, 4.1% and 2.7% year over year, respectively, in final quarter of 2023
- Among report’s major regions, Calgary recorded highest year over year price appreciation (10.7%); only major region to post quarterly price gains in Q4 2023 (1.5% over Q3)
- 81% of regional markets posted a quarter-over-quarter decline
- Approximately 2.2 million mortgages in Canada will be renewing over the next two years, most at a much higher interest rate
- National aggregate home price expected to rise 5.5% year over year in Q4 of 2024
