Royal LePage’s Q3 2023 Home Price Update and Market Forecast

October 12, 2023 3 min. read

The Royal LePage Home Price Update and Market Forecast includes price data and insights from experts in 63 real estate markets across the country, as well as national and regional forecasts.

“Slower activity has allowed critically low inventory levels to build marginally in many regions, yet the quantity of homes available for sale in this country remains well below the level needed to keep a lid on property price increases,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “Once interest rates begin to ease, even by only a small amount, we expect buyers will return to the market in large numbers and the relentless upward march of home prices will begin again. At its root, housing supply remains out of step with the growing need for it.”

Key highlights from the release include:

  • Aggregate price of a home in Canada expected to increase 7.0% in Q4 2023 compared to same period last year, a slight decrease from the previous forecast of 8.5%.
  • Diverging trends among major regions sees year-end forecast downgraded nationally and in the Greater Toronto Area, Edmonton and Regina; forecast maintained in the Greater Montreal Area (GMA), Greater Vancouver, Ottawa, Winnipeg and Halifax; Calgary is the only city whose forecast has been raised.
  • National aggregate home price increased 3.6% year over year in Q3 2023, decreased 0.8% on a quarter-over-quarter basis.
  • Aggregate home prices in greater regions of Toronto and Vancouver posted modest quarterly declines in Q3 of 2.8% and 1.8%, respectively. Meanwhile, Greater Montreal Area posted 0.6% aggregate price increase quarter over quarter.
  • More than half (57%) of regional markets in the report posted a quarter-over-quarter decline in Q3 as activity softened.
  • Royal LePage applauds federal government’s GST rebate policy aimed at incentivizing new construction of purpose-built rental housing.